selected publications
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academic article
- Assessing the Global and Local Uncertainty of Scientific Evidence in the Presence of Model Misspecification. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. 9. 2021
- Ecological change points: The strength of density dependence and the loss of history. Theoretical Population Biology. 121:45-59. 2018
- Nearly exact discretization of single species population models. Natural Resource Modeling. 31:e12167. 2018
- How Hives Collapse: Allee Effects, Ecological Resilience, and the Honey Bee. PLOS One. 11:e0150055. 2016
- Stochastic modified Beverton-Holt model with Allee effect II: the Cushing-Henson conjecture. Journal of Difference Equations and Applications. 2016
- A discrete-time host-parasitoid model with an Allee effect. Journal of Biological Dynamics. 9:34-51. 2015
- A stochastic modified Beverton-€Holt model with the Allee effect. Journal of Difference Equations and Applications. 2015
- Allee effects and resilience in stochastic populations. Theoretical Ecology. 1-13. 2015
- Hierarchical competition models with the Allee effect II: the case of immigration. Journal of Biological Dynamics. 9:288-316. 2015
- Kappa Function as a Unifying Framework for Discrete Population Modeling. Natural Resource Modeling. 2015
- Density-dependent state-space model for population-abundance data with unequal time intervals. Ecology. 95:2069-2076. 2014
- Mapping sage-grouse fence-collision risk: Spatially explicit models for targeting conservation implementation. Wildlife Society Bulletin. 37:409-415. 2013
- Wildlife mortality from infrastructure collisions: statistical modeling of count data from carcass surveys. Ecology. 94:2087-2096. 2013
- Lateral spread of invasive Spartina alterniflora in uncrowded environments. Biological Invasions. 13:401-411. 2011
- Replicated sampling increases efficiency in monitoring biological populations. Ecology. 91:610-620. 2010
- A better way to estimate population trends. Oikos. 118:1940-1946. 2009
- Effects of sampling error and temporal correlations in population growth on process variance estimators. Environmental and Ecological Statistics. 16:547-560. 2009
- Hierarchical models in ecology: confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, and model selection using data cloning. Ecology. 90:356-362. 2009
- Survival and Passage of Ingested New Zealand Mudsnails through the Intestinal Tract of Rainbow Trout. North American Journal of Aquaculture. 71:287-301. 2009
- Sixty years of environmental change in the world's largest freshwater lake - Lake Baikal, Siberia. Global Change Biology. 14:1947-1958. 2008
- Data cloning: easy maximum likelihood estimation for complex ecological models using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Ecology Letters. 10:551-563. 2007
- Predicting the dynamics of animal behaviour in field populations. Animal Behaviour. 74:103-110. 2007
- Experimental support of the scaling rule for demographic stochasticity. Ecology Letters. 9:537-547. 2006
- Estimating density dependence, process noise, and observation error. Ecological Monographs. 76:323-341. 2006
- Plant facilitation of a belowground predator. Ecology. 87:1116-1123. 2006
- Long-term survival of the entomopathogenic nematode Heterorhabditis marelatus. Environmental Entomology. 34:1501-1506. 2005
- Predicting numbers of hauled-out harbour seals: a mathematical model. Journal of Applied Ecology. 42:108-117. 2005
- Anatomy of a chaotic attractor: Subtle model-predicted patterns revealed in population data. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 101:408-413. 2004
- Confidence intervals for fish out-migration estimates using stratified trap efficiency methods. Journal of Agricultural Biological and Environmental Statistics. 9:284-299. 2004
- Estimating population trend and process variation for PVA in the presence of sampling error. Ecology. 85:923-929. 2004
- Oxygen consumption during the life cycles of the prepupa-wintering bee Megachile rotundata and the adult-wintering bee Osmia lignaria (Hymenoptera : Megachilidae). Annals of the Entomological Society of America. 97:161-170. 2004
- Park's Tribolium competition experiments: a non-equilibrium species coexistence hypothesis. Journal of Animal Ecology. 72:703-712. 2003
- Explaining and predicting patterns in stochastic population systems. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 270:1549-1553. 2003
- Estimating community stability and ecological interactions from time-series data. Ecological Monographs. 73:301-330. 2003
- Can noise induce chaos?. Oikos. 102:329-339. 2003
- Predicting population trends of mule deer. Journal of Wildlife Management. 66:729-736. 2002
- Basins of attraction: population dynamics with two stable 4-cycles. Oikos. 98:17-24. 2002
- Lattice effects observed in chaotic dynamics of experimental populations. Science (New York, N.Y). 294:602-605. 2001
- A chaotic attractor in ecology: theory and experimental data. Chaos Solitons and Fractals. 12:219-234. 2001
- Chaos and population control of insect outbreaks. Ecology Letters. 4:229-235. 2001
- Estimating chaos and complex dynamics in an insect population. Ecological Monographs. 71:277-303. 2001
- Joint effects of density dependence and rainfall on abundance of San Joaquin kit fox. Journal of Wildlife Management. 64:388-400. 2000
- Compensatory dynamics in planktonic community responses to pH perturbations. Ecology. 81:387-398. 2000
- Model selection for a subterranean trophic cascade: Root-feeding caterpillars and entomopathogenic nematodes. Ecology. 80:2750-2761. 1999
- Community interaction webs and zooplankton responses to planktivory manipulations. Ecology. 80:1405-1421. 1999
- Multiple attractors, saddles, and population dynamics in periodic habitats. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 61:1121-1149. 1999
- Complex population dynamics in the real world: Modeling the influence of time-varying parameters and time lags. Ecology. 79:2193-2209. 1998
- Joint density dependence. Ecology. 79:426-441. 1998
- Moving toward an unstable equilibrium: saddle nodes in population systems. Journal of Animal Ecology. 67:298-306. 1998
- Nonlinear population dynamics: Models, experiments and data. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 194:1-9. 1998
- Phase switching in population cycles. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 265:2229-2234. 1998
- Resonant population cycles in temporally fluctuating habitats. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 60:247-273. 1998
- Chaotic dynamics in an insect population. Science (New York, N.Y). 275:389-391. 1997
- Estimating chaos in an insect population - Response. Science (New York, N.Y). 276:1881-1882. 1997
- Transitions in population dynamics: Equilibria to periodic cycles to aperiodic cycles. Journal of Animal Ecology. 66:704-729. 1997
- Long-term population analysis of gray partridge in eastern Washington. Journal of Wildlife Management. 60:817-825. 1996
- An interdisciplinary approach to understanding nonlinear ecological dynamics. Ecological Modelling. 92:111-119. 1996
- Experimentally-induced transitions in the dynamic behavior of insect populations. Nature. 375:227-230. 1995
- Nonlinear demographic dynamics - mathematical-models, statistical-methods, and biological experiments. Ecological Monographs. 65:261-281. 1995
- Density-dependence in time-series observations of natural-populations - estimation and testing. Ecological Monographs. 64:205-224. 1994
- Density-Dependence Tests, are they?. Oecologia. 95:581-591. 1993
- Density-dependence in rangeland grasshoppers (Orthoptera, Acrididae). Oecologia. 96:1-8. 1993
- Toward a general-model of rangeland grasshopper (Orthoptera, Acrididae) phenology in the steppe region of Montana. Environmental Entomology. 20:1504-1515. 1991
- Growth-and-yield model for uneven-aged cedrus-atlantica stands in Morocco. Forest Ecology and Management. 36:253-266. 1990
- Genetic-Analysis of a Population of Tribolium .0. Maximization of Population-Size and the Concept of a Stochastic Equilibrium . Genome. 33:571-580. 1990
- Development of 2 rangeland grasshoppers at constant temperatures - development thresholds revisited. Canadian Entomologist. 121:363-371. 1989
- Analysis of steady-state populations with the gamma-abundance model - application to tribolium. Ecology. 69:1200-1213. 1988
- Further statistical-inference methods for a stochastic-model of insect phenology. Environmental Entomology. 17:887-893. 1988
- Estimating density from variable circular plot censuses. Journal of Wildlife Management. 51:224-230. 1987
- Stochastic phenology model for the western spruce budworm (lepidoptera, tortricidae). Environmental Entomology. 15:547-554. 1986
- Stochastic-model of insect phenology - estimation and testing. Environmental Entomology. 15:540-546. 1986
- Problems of modeling growth and yield of renewable resources. American Statistician. 39:374-383. 1985
- Evolution of optimal group attack, with particular reference to bark beetles (coleoptera, scholytidae). Ecology. 66:898-903. 1985
- The gamma-distribution and weighted multimodal gamma-distributions as models of population abundance. Mathematical Biosciences. 68:187-212. 1984
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conference paper
- Reverse Engineering of Legacy Agricultural Phenology Modeling System. 2014 IEEE 11th International Conference on Information Technology: New Generations (ITNG). 508-513. 2014
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dataset
- Data from: How Hives Collapse: Allen Effects, Ecological Resilience, and the Honey Bee 2019
- EaglePOPd Web Interactive: Software to investigate the demography of Bald Eagles in the Northeast, USA from 1990-2018 2019
- OptiPOPd: Software to estimate parameters of a population matrix model using a combinatorial algorithm: an investigation and evaluation of the method using simulated trajectories of Northern Spotted Owl 2019
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report