selected publications
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academic article
- SnowClim v1.0: high-resolution snow model and data for the western United States. Geoscientific Model Development. 15:5045-5071. 2022
- Future climate risks from stress, insects and fire across US forests. Ecology Letters. 25:1510-1520. 2022
- Summer temperature variability since 1730 CE across the low-to-mid latitudes of western North America from a tree ring blue intensity network. Quaternary Science Reviews. 267. 2021
- How does water yield respond to mountain pine beetle infestation in a semiarid forest?. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 25:4681-4699. 2021
- Satellite-Based Drought Reporting on the Navajo Nation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association. 2021
- Projected Changes of Precipitation Characteristics Depend on Downscaling Method and Training Data: MACA versus LOCA Using the US Northeast as an Example. Journal of Hydrometeorology. 21:2739-2758. 2020
- Verification of Red Flag Warnings across the Northwestern U.S. as Forecasts of Large Fire Occurrence. Fire. 3:60. 2020
- Climate Change is Increasing the Likelihood of Extreme Autumn Wildfire Conditions across California. Environmental Research Letters. 15:094016. 2020
- A 30-Yr Climatology of Meteorological Conditions Associated with Lightning Days in the Interior Western United States. Journal of Climate. 33:3771-3785. 2020
- Multivariate Climate Departures Have Outpaced Univariate Changes Across Global Lands. Scientific Reports. 10:3891 . 2020
- Modeling Soil Wind Erosion From Agroecological Classes of the Pacific Northwest in Response to Current Climate. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. 125:e2019JD031104. 2020
- Best practices for estimating near-surface air temperature lapse rates. International Journal of Climatology. 2020
- Projected Changes in Interannual Variability of Peak Snowpack Amount and Timing in the Western United States. Geophysical Research Letters. 2019
- Warming Winters Reduce Chill Accumulation for Peach Production in the Southeastern United States. Climate. 7:94. 2019
- Changes in Fire Activity in Africa from 2002 to 2016 and Their Potential Drivers. Geophysical Research Letters. 46:7643-7653. 2019
- Representative Agricultural Pathways, Climate Change, and Agricultural Land Uses: an Application to the Pacific Northwest of the USA. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. 24:819-837. 2019
- Human-Environmental Drivers and Impacts of the Globally Extreme 2017 Chilean Fires. Ambio. 48:350-362. 2019
- Planning for Idaho's Waterscapes: A Review of Historical Drivers and Outlook for the Next 50 Years. Environmental Science and Policy. 94:191-201. 2019
- Warming Alters Hydrologic Heterogeneity: Simulated Climate Sensitivity of Hydrology-Based Microrefugia in the Snow-to-Rain Transition Zone. Water Resources Research. 55:2122-2141. 2019
- Weather Tools for Retrospective Assessment of Restoration Outcomes. Rangeland Ecology and Management. 72:225-229. 2019
- Microclimatic buffering in forests of the future: the role of local water balance. Ecography. 42:1-11. 2019
- A dataset on human perception of and response to wildfire smoke.. Scientific Data. 6:229. 2019
- Climate will increasingly determine post-fire tree regeneration success in low-elevation forests, Northern Rockies, USA. Ecosphere. 10:e02568. 2019
- Consequences of climatic thresholds for projecting fire activity and ecological change. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 28:521-532. 2019
- Contribution of large-scale midlatitude disturbances to hourly precipitation extremes in the United States. Climate Dynamics. 52:197-208. 2019
- Drought and Moisture Availability and Recent Western Spruce Budworm Outbreaks in the Western United States. Forests. 10:354. 2019
- Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices. Geophysical Research Letters. 46:326-336. 2019
- Modeling Current and Future Potential Distributions of Milkweeds and the Monarch Butterfly in Idaho. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. 7:168. 2019
- Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California. Earths Future. 7:892-910. 2019
- Spatiotemporal prediction of wildfire size extremes with Bayesian finite sample maxima. Ecological Applications. 29:e01898. 2019
- Using the Arctic water resources vulnerability index in assessing and responding to environmental change in Alaskan communities. Climate Risk Management. 23:19-31. 2019
- An integrated dataset for stakeholder perceptions of environmental change and instrumented measures of change. Data in Brief. 21:1721-1723. 2018
- The role of perceptions versus instrumented data of environmental change: Responding to changing environments in Alaska. Environmental Science and Policy. 90:110-121. 2018
- Global patterns of interannual climate-fire relationships. Global Change Biology. 24:5164-5175. 2018
- Adaptation with climate uncertainty: An examination of agricultural land use in the United States. Land Use Policy. 77:392-401. 2018
- Community-based observing networks and systems in the Arctic: Human perceptions of environmental change and instrument-derived data. Regional Environmental Change. 18:547-559. 2018
- Effect of Reduced Summer Cloud Shading on Evaporative Demand and Wildfire in Coastal Southern California. Geophysical Research Letters. 45:5653-5662. 2018
- Evaluating opportunities for an increased role of winter crops as adaptation to climate change in dryland cropping systems of the U.S. Inland Pacific Northwest. Climatic Change. 146:247-261. 2018
- Fire Refugia: What Are They, and Why Do They Matter for Global Change?. BioScience. 68:944-954. 2018
- Natural and managed watersheds show similar responses to recent climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 115:8553-8557. 2018
- Shifts in the thermal niche of almond under climate change. Climatic Change. 147:211-224. 2018
- Spatiotemporal patterns of unburned areas within fire perimeters in the northwestern United States from 1984 to 2014. Ecosphere. 9:e02029. 2018
- TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015.. Scientific Data. 5:170191. 2018
- Climate Engine: Cloud Computing and Visualization of Climate and Remote Sensing Data for Advanced Natural Resource Monitoring and Process Understanding. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 98.0:2397.0-2410.0. 2017
- The 2015 drought in Washington State: a harbinger of things to come?. Environmental Research Letters. 12. 2017
- Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the USA: the role of socio-economic scenarios. Climatic Change. 144.0:329.0-345.0. 2017
- Comparing mechanistic and empirical approaches to modeling the thermal niche of almond. International Journal of Biometeorology. 61:1593-1606. 2017
- Projections of 21st century climate of the Columbia River Basin. Climate Dynamics. 49.0:1783.0-1799.0. 2017
- Recent and future climate suitability for whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetles varies across the western US. Forest Ecology and Management. 399.0:132.0-142.0. 2017
- Trends and drivers of fire activity vary across California aridland ecosystems. Journal of Arid Environments. 144.0:110.0-122.0. 2017
- Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.. Global Change Biology. 23:2537-2553. 2017
- Human exposure and sensitivity to globally extreme wildfire events. Nature Ecology and Evolution. 1.0. 2017
- Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling of North American Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts over the Western United States. Weather and Forecasting. 32:327-341. 2017
- Effects of fire radiative energy density dose on Pinus contorta and Larix occidentalis seedling physiology and mortality. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 26:82-94. 2017
- Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 114:2946-2951. 2017
- Using Scientific Conferences to Engage the Public on Climate Change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 98:225-230. 2017
- Climate influences on whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Ecological Applications. 26:2505-2522. 2016
- Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 113:11770-11775. 2016
- Development of high-resolution (250 m) historical daily gridded air temperature data using reanalysis and distributed sensor networks for the US Northern Rocky Mountains. International Journal of Climatology. 36:3620-3632. 2016
- Spatial coherence of extreme precipitation events in the Northwestern United States. International Journal of Climatology. 36:2451-2460. 2016
- Contribution of Cutoff Lows to Precipitation across the United States*. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 55:893-899. 2016
- Controls on interannual variability in lightning-caused fire activity in the western US. Environmental Research Letters. 11. 2016
- Projected changes in cold hardiness zones and suitable overwinter ranges of perennial crops over the United States. Environmental Research Letters. 11. 2016
- How will climate change affect wildland fire severity in the western US?. Environmental Research Letters. 11. 2016
- The Science of Firescapes: Achieving Fire-Resilient Communities. BioScience. 66:130-146. 2016
- Towards a new paradigm in fire severity research using dose-response experiments. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 25:158-166. 2016
- Quantifying the human influence on fire ignition across the western USA. Ecological Applications. 26:2388-2399. 2016
- Simulated water budget of a small forested watershed in the continental/maritime hydroclimatic region of the United States. Hydrological Processes. 2016
- Wildland fire deficit and surplus in the western United States, 1984-2012. Ecosphere. 6:1-13. 2015
- Improved Bias Correction Techniques for Hydrological Simulations of Climate Change. Journal of Hydrometeorology. 16:2421-2442. 2015
- Development of Soil Moisture Drought Index to Characterize Droughts. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. 20. 2015
- Climate Contributors to Forest Mosaics: Ecological Persistence Following Wildfire. Northwest Science. 89:219-238. 2015
- Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012-2014. Geophysical Research Letters. 42:6819-6828. 2015
- Forest structure and species traits mediate projected recruitment declines in western US tree species. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 24:917-927. 2015
- The Changing Strength and Nature of Fire-Climate Relationships in the Northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008. PLOS One. 10. 2015
- Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 24:892-899. 2015
- Indicators of climate change in Idaho: An assessment framework for coupling biophysical change and social perception. Weather Climate and Society. 2015
- Limitations and utilisation of Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity products for assessing wildfire severity in the USA. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 24:1023-1028. 2015
- Multi-scalar influence of weather and climate on very large-fires in the Eastern United States. International Journal of Climatology. 35:2180-2186. 2015
- Projected changes in snowfall extremes and interannual variability of snowfall in the western United States. Water Resources Research. 51:960-972. 2015
- Seasonal reversal of the influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on very large wildfire occurrence in the interior northwestern United States. Geophysical Research Letters. 42:3538-3545. 2015
- Vegetation, topography and daily weather influenced burn severity in central Idaho and western Montana forests. Ecosphere. 6. 2015
- Climate and very large wildland fires in the contiguous western USA. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 23:899-914. 2014
- Agroecological factors correlated to soil DNA concentrations of Rhizoctonia in dryland wheat production zones of Washington State, USA. Phytopathology. 104:683-691. 2014
- Defining extreme wildland fires using geospatial and ancillary metrics. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 23:322-337. 2014
- Observed and projected changes in absolute temperature records across the contiguous United States. Geophysical Research Letters. 41:6501-6508. 2014
- October 2013 Blizzard In Western South Dakota. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 95:S23-S26. 2014
- Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States. Climatic Change. 126:455-468. 2014
- Seasonal Climate Variability and Change in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Journal of Climate. 27:2125-2142. 2014
- Tracking Interannual Streamflow Variability with Drought Indices in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Journal of Hydrometeorology. 15:1900-1912. 2014
- Evaluation of CMIP5 20th century climate simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. 118:1-23. 2013
- Diagnosing Santa Ana Winds in Southern California with Synoptic-Scale Analysis. Weather and Forecasting. 28:704-710. 2013
- Camouflage mismatch in seasonal coat color due to decreased snow duration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 110:7360-7365. 2013
- Drought characteristics' role in widespread aspen forest mortality across Colorado, USA. Global Change Biology. 19:1526-1537. 2013
- Regional Surges of Monsoonal Moisture into the Southwestern United States. Monthly Weather Review. 141:182-191. 2013
- Climate extreme and its linkage to regional drought over Idaho, USA. Natural Hazards. 65:653-681. 2013
- Climate extremes and their linkage to regional drought over Idaho, USA. Natural Hazards. 65:653-681. 2013
- Development of gridded surface meteorological data for ecological applications and modelling. International Journal of Climatology. 33:121-131. 2013
- Relationships between climate and macroscale area burned in the western United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 2013
- The Ancient Blue Oak Woodlands of California: Longevity and Hydroclimatic History. Earth Interactions. 17:1-23. 2013
- The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century. Global Change Biology. 19:241-251. 2013
- A comparison of statistical downscaling methods suited for wildfire applications. International Journal of Climatology. 32:772-780. 2012
- An Evaluation of Multiscalar Drought Indices in Nevada and Eastern California. Earth Interactions. 16. 2012
- Wildfire consumption and interannual impacts by land cover in Alaskan Boreal forest. Fire Ecology. 8:98-114. 2012
- The identification of distinct patterns in California temperature trends. Climatic Change. 108:357-382. 2011
- A Tree-Ring Reconstruction of the Salinity Gradient in the Northern Estuary of San Francisco Bay. San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science. 9. 2011
- Changes in Climatic Water Balance Drive Downhill Shifts in Plant Species' Optimum Elevations. Science (New York, N.Y). 331:324-327. 2011
- Climate Change in Western US Deserts: Potential for Increased Wildfire and Invasive Annual Grasses. Rangeland Ecology and Management. 64:471-478. 2011
- Empirical downscaling of daily minimum air temperature at very fine resolutions in complex terrain. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 151:1066-1073. 2011
- Influence of the PNA on declining mountain snowpack in the Western United States. International Journal of Climatology. 31:1135-1142. 2011
- Relative importance of weather and climate on wildfire growth in interior Alaska. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 20:479-486. 2011
- Response to Comments on ”Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species optimum elevations”. Science (New York, N.Y). 334:177-177. 2011
- How much influence does landscape-scale physiography have on air temperature in a mountain environment?. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 149:1751-1758. 2009
- Tracking the rhythm of the seasons in the face of global change: phenological research in the 21st century. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 7:253-260. 2009
- Classification of Regional Climate Variability in the State of California. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 48:1527-1541. 2009
- Fire behavior, weather, and burn severity of the 2007 Anaktuvuk River tundra fire, North Slope, Alaska. Arctic Antarctic and Alpine Research. 41:309-316. 2009
- Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Summertime Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Activity over the Continental United States. Monthly Weather Review. 137:3596-3601. 2009
- Wave breaking along the stratospheric polar vortex as seen in ERA-40 data. Geophysical Research Letters. 34:L08812-L08812. 2007
- Asymmetry between trends in spring and autumn temperature and circulation regimes over western North America. Geophysical Research Letters. 34. 2007
- Opposing Effects of Reflective and Nonreflective Planetary Wave Breaking on the NAO. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. 63:3448-3457. 2006
- Planetary Wave Breaking and Nonlinear Reflection: Seasonal Cycle and Interannual Variability. Journal of Climate. 19:6139-6152. 2006
- Nonlinear planetary wave reflection in the troposphere. Geophysical Research Letters. 31. 2004
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article
- Questionable evidence of natural warming of the northwestern United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 111:E5605-E5606. 2014
- Understanding El Nino for your fire management unit. Wildfire Lessons Learned. 2010
- Phenological trend estimation: a reply to Sagarin, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 7:296-296. 2009
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chapter
- A Primer on Global Climate-Change Science. Climate Change: What It Means For Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren. 15-52. 2014
- Climate-Change Effects, Adaptation, and Mitigation. Climate Change: What It Means For Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren. 53-104. 2014
- Current Climate and Recent Trends. Regional Climate Studies. 53-94. 2014
- Wilderness Fire Management in a Changing Environment. Landscape Ecology of Fire. 269-294. 2011
- Chapter 2: A Primer on Global Climate Change Science. Climate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren. 11-44. 2007
- Chapter 3: Climate Change Effects: Global and Local Views. Climate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren. 45-64.
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conference paper
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editorial article
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report
- Indicators of Climate Change in California 2013
- 8-km Historical Datasets for FPA. CEFA Reports. 2009
- The Meteorological and Climatological Fire Extremes of California 2008. CEFA Reports. 2009
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video